Happy New Year. Iran Is Reloading.

Nothing says Happy New Year quite like ballistic missiles.

Here in Jerusalem, Rosh Hashanah is normally a season of apples, honey, pomegranates, prayer, family meals, and the deeply optimistic Jewish conviction that next year might actually be better than this one.

This year, apparently, we are adding underground nuclear facilities and Iranian missile factories to the menu.

Standing at the Western Wall ahead of the Jewish New Year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered what can only be described as a very Israeli holiday greeting.

Iran, he said, is rebuilding.

More specifically, Netanyahu said Tehran is attempting to restore its ability to develop nuclear weapons after Israeli and American military operations badly damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

His message was equally straightforward.

Israel intends to stop them.

That warning came as new intelligence indicated Iran has resumed limited production of ballistic missiles, using components stockpiled before previous attacks and moving more of its production underground.

Which brings us to one of the most important lessons from the current war with Iran.

You can destroy a missile factory.

Destroying the knowledge required to build missiles is considerably harder.

Iran appears to understand that distinction very well.

The War Goes Underground

According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, Iran is once again assembling ballistic missiles at underground facilities, including the Khojir complex east of Tehran.

The production is reportedly still limited. Iran lost significant manufacturing capacity during previous attacks, and international pressure has made importing replacement components more difficult.

But Tehran apparently planned ahead.

Warheads, guidance systems, airframes, and other components were stockpiled before facilities were destroyed. Iran can now use those reserves to begin rebuilding part of its missile arsenal while constructing new production sites intended to be much harder to target.

If the first phase of this war was about destroying Iranian infrastructure, the next phase may become a contest over how quickly Iran can rebuild it.

And increasingly, Tehran appears determined to put as much of that infrastructure underground as humanly possible.

Enter Pickaxe Mountain.

Yes, that is really what we are calling it.

The fortified site sits near Iran's heavily damaged Natanz nuclear complex and contains deeply buried tunnel systems beneath solid rock.

Satellite imagery shows construction activity around the site.

What exactly is happening inside remains considerably less clear.

There is currently no publicly available proof that active centrifuges are operating inside Pickaxe Mountain. There is also no public confirmation that weapons grade uranium has been moved there.

That distinction matters.

Journalism requires us to separate what intelligence officials suspect from what can actually be demonstrated.

Unfortunately, verification has become increasingly difficult because Iran has restricted international nuclear inspectors from accessing key facilities.

So we are left with satellite images, construction activity, intelligence assessments, and one enormous mountain full of tunnels.

Which is not exactly reassuring.

President Donald Trump put the matter in somewhat less diplomatic language.

He warned Iran not to "get cute" at Pickaxe Mountain and said additional American strikes remain possible.

Whatever one thinks of presidential phrasing, the underlying message was unmistakable.

Washington is watching.

Tehran knows it is being watched.

And everybody knows everybody else knows.

Welcome to deterrence.

It is basically a heavily armed staring contest, except the participants have ballistic missiles.

Two Straits and One Very Large Problem

Iran's pressure campaign is not limited to Iran.

That would be far too simple.

The Islamic Republic has spent decades building relationships with armed proxy organizations across the region, allowing Tehran to project power without always putting Iranian forces directly in the line of fire.

The Houthis in Yemen are now demonstrating why that strategy matters.

Houthi forces recently captured the strategic Yemeni port city of Mocha and expanded control along the Red Sea coastline near the Bab el Mandeb Strait.

If you are struggling to keep all the straits straight, congratulations. You are now qualified to cover the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz sits on the eastern side of the Arabian Peninsula and controls access to the Persian Gulf.

The Bab el Mandeb sits on the western side, connecting the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.

Ships passing through Bab el Mandeb can travel north through the Red Sea, into the Suez Canal, and onward toward Europe.

That makes the waterway enormously important to global trade.

It also makes controlling or disrupting it enormously valuable.

The Houthis have already demonstrated their willingness to attack commercial shipping using drones and missiles. Their latest territorial gains give them an even stronger position near one of the world's major maritime chokepoints.

Shipping companies faced with that threat have an unpleasant alternative.

Instead of sailing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, vessels can travel around the Cape of Good Hope at the bottom of Africa.

That works.

It also adds distance, time, fuel, insurance costs, and eventually higher prices for consumers.

This is where Iran's regional strategy becomes particularly effective.

A relatively inexpensive drone launched by an Iranian proxy can impose enormous costs on international shipping.

That is economic warfare with a very favorable return on investment.

Unless, of course, you are the person paying for groceries, fuel, shipping, insurance, or virtually anything else transported by sea.

Then the return feels less favorable.

Lebanon's Underground Fortress

Iran's other major regional investment has been Hezbollah.

And Israel has been systematically dismantling that investment.

This week Israeli forces destroyed a massive Hezbollah underground complex beneath the Ali al Taher Ridge in southern Lebanon.

The tunnel network stretched for more than two kilometers and contained command facilities, weapons storage areas, rockets, missiles, drones, explosives, and living quarters capable of supporting fighters underground for extended periods.

This was not a few guys with shovels digging a hole.

It was infrastructure.

Iran helped fund and develop it over years.

According to reporting from the region, Israel used more than 1,100 tonnes of explosives to destroy the tunnel system. The blast was so large that the United States Geological Survey registered a magnitude 4.1 seismic event.

That is one way to close a tunnel.

The scale is difficult to comprehend.

Imagine dozens of fully loaded tractor trailers filled entirely with explosives.

Then imagine detonating them underneath a mountain.

There is also a tragedy buried beneath the military story.

Consider the resources required to construct something like this.

Concrete.

Engineering.

Electricity.

Ventilation.

Weapons.

Communications systems.

Years of labor.

Millions upon millions of dollars poured beneath the hills of Lebanon so fighters could prepare for another war.

Lebanon desperately needs functioning infrastructure above ground.

Instead, Iran invested enormous resources in infrastructure below it.

Schools could have been built.

Hospitals could have been improved.

Roads could have been repaired.

Businesses could have been funded.

Homes could have been rebuilt.

Instead, somebody built tunnels for rockets.

That is not resistance.

It is theft from an entire generation.

And ordinary Lebanese families continue paying the bill.

Why Israelis Pay Attention During Holidays

There is another reason Israeli leaders are particularly vocal right now.

It is Rosh Hashanah.

Jewish holidays carry enormous emotional meaning in Israel, but they also carry historical memory.

Israel was attacked on Yom Kippur in 1973.

The October 7 massacre began on a Jewish holiday morning fifty years later.

That history has created an uncomfortable instinct here.

When the holidays arrive, Israelis celebrate.

They also pay attention.

Defense Minister Israel Katz has openly warned Iran against using the holiday period to attack Israel. He says the Israeli military is prepared to respond with overwhelming force, including strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.

Interestingly, Katz addressed the Iranian people separately from their government.

He wished Iranian Jews a happy New Year and expressed hope that ordinary Iranians might one day live free from the regime ruling them.

That distinction is important.

Iran is not the Iranian regime.

Persian civilization is ancient, sophisticated, and extraordinary.

Iranian families want largely the same things families everywhere want.

Safety.

Opportunity.

A future for their children.

The tragedy is that their government has spent decades pouring extraordinary national wealth into nuclear development, ballistic missiles, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other armed groups across the region.

The Iranian people deserve better.

So do the Lebanese.

So do the Yemenis.

So do the Israelis.

The Bigger Story

From Jerusalem, it can sometimes feel as though we are watching several different wars.

Iran.

Lebanon.

Yemen.

Gaza.

The Red Sea.

The Strait of Hormuz.

But increasingly, these are not separate stories.

They are interconnected fronts in a larger struggle over who will shape the Middle East.

Iran has built a network designed to surround Israel, pressure Arab governments, threaten international shipping, and deter attacks against Tehran itself.

Israel and the United States are now systematically attacking pieces of that network.

Iran, meanwhile, is rebuilding.

Which brings us back to Pickaxe Mountain.

There may or may not be centrifuges spinning beneath that rock today.

Nobody outside the Iranian system can publicly prove it.

But the construction activity tells us something important.

Iran is thinking about tomorrow.

So is Israel.

And somewhere between those two calculations sits the uncomfortable future of this region.

Here in Jerusalem, families are celebrating the New Year.

There will be prayers.

There will be honey.

There will be pomegranates.

There will probably be far too much food because apparently every Jewish holiday requires preparing enough for twelve additional guests who may or may not exist.

And beneath all of it is a prayer that has become increasingly meaningful.

May the coming year be better than the one before it.

After the last few years in this part of the world, that does not feel sentimental.

It feels urgent.

Shana Tova from Jerusalem.